Population Overload

Darwin’s theory of natural selection is being challenged by humanity as a whole. The idea of natural selection and survival of the fittest could prove to be irrelevant in regards to humanity, with the uncertainty principle possibly playing a factor.

Classically, opponents of Darwin’s theories have been logic-free religious zealots who denounce the theories solely because they contradict their own beliefs. Now there may actually be a logical argument against (or in exception to) the theory of natural selection and the paradigm ‘survival of the fittest.’

Statistics show that the highest birthrates throughout the world are in third world countries, all of the top 10 being African Nations, and the top 50 primarily African, Middle-Eastern or South-East Asian. The US in particular has highest birthrates in the most religious states, which are typically the least educated and poorest.

On the flipside, some recent articles have evinced the fact that European birthrates are falling drastically. In the next century, countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece could lose more than 80% of their native population. Also see Europe is Dying

If these trends continue, some of the oldest and most advanced cultures could vanish only to be replaced by the inhabitants of over-crowded, destitute countries.

The theory on natural selection holds that reproductive success (survival) is most probable for those with the best characteristics for survival and adaptability [not necessarily strength or physical qualities] in their environment. The idea is almost tautological and redundant. In other words,

“This is not a very informative statement: it simply reduces to a statement that the game of Life is not rigged in favour of the poorly adapted, which is not controversial”

Though the theory was a huge breakthrough at the time and seems to be truthful and commonsense in its ‘uncontroversial-ness’ - in the case of humanity it may have no meaning at all.

Currently, those who are reproducing the most are the least fit, and don’t have the characteristics to out-survive their global counterparts. They lack many basic needs that are commonplace in other parts of the world. Furthermore, their environments are much harsher and less developed, making survival more difficult. Compare living conditions in Somalia to the United States. Think of infrastructure, education, access to clean water, medication, life expectancy and all the other ways the two are polar opposites. Shockingly, the fertility rate in Somalia is 3 to 1 (6.52 to 2.05) compared to the U.S.*

For humanity it is not the fittest, but those who reproduce the most who are surviving.

Developed societies are far more sexually active than the 3^rd world ones, so it is surely not the reproductive act that is lacking.

The most obvious reason for these rates are lack of (or refusal to use) contraception. Many of the third world countries lack any form of easily accessible contraception or don’t use them for religious reasons. Still, there are social factors that come into play with contraception.

Contraception is an invention that has made people more aware of themselves and their basic animal instinct to reproduce (aside from our independent self awareness). We observe ourselves unlike any other creature. Also unlike most other animals, humans also have sex for pleasure and recreation.

Our self awareness and societal interactions have caused us to become more aware of the impact that a child can have on our lives. We know the impact of bringing a child into the world with parents unfit to rear. We also now very aware of the environmental impact of people, and consider the resources it takes for a human to live. Perhaps this awareness and deference of reproduction is a new adaptive instinct to help preserve our environment so that our species will survive longer - the next evolutionary step (also see Beyond Good an Evil. )

The new norms of self-development and individualism are exclusive to modern societies, where the less advanced are still dominated by the ideal of a nuclear family, or even tribal life. Also in modern societies, people are perhaps more selective when choosing mates, as the selection pool is exponentially increased with the ease of communication through technology. For these and many other socio-economic reasons, people will defer having a child. This volition is often absent in places without the same social factors.

It is ironic that an invention by an advanced society could lead to its disappearance. Quite the tragic flaw.

The movie Idiocracy, perfectly illustrates this point, showing what is happening now, and the possible ramifications down the line (a nation of idiots).

glumbert - Intro to Idiocracy

With the disproportionate rate of reproduction, it seems plausible that the world could slip into another dark age. Can a democratic society make competent decisions if the people are incompetent? (Personally, I feel we already face this problem)

So are we doomed to be taken over by troglodytes?

Probably not. Most likely, the smartest and most powerful will rise to the top and take control. Still, they may only be controlling a mass of morons.

The world could avoid (or at least deter) this by instituting a child cap policy like China. Perhaps they could require people to apply for a parenting permit, whereby they must show they can adequately take care of a child. Regardless, untapped reproductive rates will hurt the world as a whole – we may lose the advances we have worked so hard for, but more importantly we will surely exhaust our resources. It is even possible we will destroy ourselves in some other way first.

I don’t think Darwin ever considered that a species could be too successful at reproducing – so successful that it could cause its own extinction. The idea may seem contradictory, but as I always say, “Paradox is the crux of human existence.”

*Some might argue it is necessary to have more children to achieve the the same rate of success in a place where there is less likelihood of survival. The survival rate is not disparate enough to apply here. Despite AIDS and wars, the rate of growth in the 3^rd world is alarming when compared to those of 1^st world countries.

The most interesting Tech topics of 2009-2010 according to Evanomics

After a hiatus of finishing school and starting work, I’m back to continue my observations and analysis of technology and society. Here is a brief description of some of the bigger things I have noticed in the past year or two.

3D – Avatar marked a step forward for visual media. One of (if not THE) first 3d movies with the hybrid of real actors and CGI. Regardless of the quality of story, the movie was visually stunning. It has set a precedent for the immersive experience of movies and media to come. Also, ESPN announced it will launch a 3D network starting in the summer with an initial broadcast of the World Cup in South Africa.

Google China – Long story short: Google controversially starts operations in China, agreeing to censor certain things (Tiananmen Square, Tibetan Freedom, Christian Groups, etc) from their search, contra their typical transparent open source ideals. Then, some Chinese human rights activist’s (and others) Gmail accounts are hacked; the hack is highly sophisticated and traced to China. Google has a hunch that the hack was perpetrated by the Chinese government itself and consequently ceases operations in China.

Hats off to Google for having some balls and taking an ethical stance. Still, one must wonder whether they should have agreed to the compromise in the first place. All in all, the situation elevated the discussion of internet and information freedom to a global level – a topic which should be considered closely going forward this decade.

Bionics – Just this past month, National Geographic, Popular Mechanics and many other media publications have been focusing more and more on robotics, bionics, and similar medical technology. This type of thing has been depicted in fiction for a good time, but is finally becoming a reality.

Robots - The number and types of robots are steadily increasing. There so many developments each and every day, it’s almost hard to keep track of. J

Click here for a fun blog about robots and humans:

Green movement – Whether it’s global warming, decreasing food supplies, or oil, humans have become more aware of their impact on the planet. Many new initiatives and technologies are being developed to make us a more efficient, less wasteful species. Regardless of the actual extent of our current effect on the environment, this topic is well worth discussing(like internet/info freedom), as it will surely be a challenge we will have to face somewhere down the line.

Gaming – This past year has achieved what gamers have been waiting for. Games have finally caught up with the capabilities that the next gen consoles promised. Two of the most popular games have been Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and FIFA 10. COD:MW2 is an addictively entertaining multiplayer first person shooter, with a slightly futuristic setting(but still modern enough). It is perhaps the first console game that can truly challenge Counterstrike as an elite FPS. FIFA 10 truly is a sports game for the new decade, with great graphics, advanced game play, and the ability to upload a picture of your face to create your own personalized character.

Large Hadron Collider – This is one of the biggest multinational science experiments ever – perhaps it is comparable to the introduction of the International Space Station. It is the world's largest and best particle accelerator, being used to discover and explore new areas of particle physics.The entire science world has been very excited about it, although most people can only grasp a simple understanding of how it works and what it is used for (myself included)

Social media/Web 2.0 – The internet continues to grow smarter, and more customized towards user experience. So many new sites are built around community and user involvement. The popularity of blogging, commenting, rating, and interacting continues to flourish. Sites collect and use user info, but this has led to a big debate on Privacy, especially with facebook. Some of my favorite sites are reddit and behance .

Apple – Not really news, Apple continues to slaughter whatever market they decide to engage. The iPhone, though restricted to AT&T, has been the indisputable champion of the smart phone, and with rumors that the AT&T exclusivity agreement will end possibly this week, you better believe the sales are only going to go up. You would only need one hand to count the amount of Apple flops, where you may need a calculator to quantify the enormity of their successes. The proof is in the pudding - even in a struggling global economy, Apple continues to post record profits.

What to look forward to:

Tablets – Possibly the next step in personal computing. Stay posted for a more in-depth look on mobile/ubiquitous computing in the coming weeks.

Space – Richard Branson will take you to space (If you have the money of course). I am currently accepting donations towards the Send Evanomics to Space Fund!!!!

Public Intellectual Part II: Technology and the Renaissance

In Part I of my series on the public intellectual, I talked about how public intellectuals are still thriving in our society thanks to democracy and religion. In this post, I will focus on how the internet has acted as a catalyst in the development of the public intellectual, as well as how the PI has been crucial in the development of such innovations .

Communicational innovations have been especially beneficial tools for the spread of public intellectuals, but more importantly, it has further enabled the effortless dissemination of their ideas. In turn, the PI's support and use of has been integral in the evolution of such creations. A striking resemblance can be made between Gutenberg's printing press and the current phenomenon of the internet.

The most glaring resemblance is the fact that both the printing press and the internet enabled sharing of information never before imagined. Similarly, both inventions caused massive effects outside of their original intention. Paradigms were not shifted - they were completely changed. James A. Dewar notes the many benefits of the printing press, noting,

“The printing press has been implicated in the Reformation, the Renaissance and the Scientific Revolution, all of which had profound effects on their eras; similarly profound changes may already be underway in the information age.”

Dewar also draws a similarity between the press and networked computing, arguing, “The future of the information age will be dominated by unintended consequences” and “It will be decades before we see the full effects of the information age.” Certainly many consequences will go unforeseen(as they often do with inventions of such magnitudes), though a lengthy realization may not be as likely. Where 150 years ago, it could take months to reach someone across the country, people can now instantly interact on a global scale. And, of course, almost everyone has a computer.

These tools are byproducts coming from a need to learn more about our universe – that undying intellectual drive to know. In other words, these are inventions to help inventors. The underlying idea is information. By sharing and spreading information, people can know more, and more people can know more. We are living in an age where information is power - where the most informed and the most amount of informed people gain new relevances. It is the Information Age, and ubiquity is not a dream, but a very realistic goal.

Still, the internet's importance does not rely solely on the fact that the information is out there, but also the ease of access and dissemination on a personal level. To find virtually information on any topic, all one needs to know is what they are looking for and google's URL. Type in “the basics of quantum computing” and you'll get 170,000 results in 0.22 seconds – perhaps there may be a few intellectuals in that bunch.

If you happen to be looking for more narrowed results, or if you are such an intellectual that your esoteric criteria is too obscure, there is a plethora of places to look. Many sites offer unique and user-customizable search filtering. The multitude of scholarly sites typically post journals, articles, interviews, and other academic work of the highest caliber. Though some come at an expense, their availability is the crucial point.

Wikipedia has replaced the encyclopedia as a common store of knowledge and reference. Because of it's open source philosophy where the community submits and moderates content, accuracy is ensured to a percentile surpassing a printed encyclopedia and rivaling current online ones. The community of Public Intellectuals is out there, and they are very aware of each other. Wikipedia is not the only way that the current PI collaborates.

The blogosphere is the new global agora. A blog serves as a personal statement of identity, by sharing one's ideas with others in hopes of finding people with similar interests or relevant criticisms. Even the simplest of blogs can give insight to an outsider. The evolution has gone from the newspaper article to the blog address, only you don't have to be hired to write anymore. Furthermore, forums and discussion groups are even less formal, but just as common ways of sharing ideas, allowing users to post and comment on various topics.

The global aspect of the internet is truly unique. Never before have people been able to easily communicate regardless of location. Forget about the phone – email, instant messaging, video chat, and file sharing allow people to interact and share ideas instantly across various mediums. Teachers can teach classes with audio and visual tools, almost creating a completely virtual classroom environment. The fast transmission of information allows for quicker evolution of ideas. Physicist Paul Ginsparg said:

"The communication of research results occurs on a dramatically accelerated timescale... In addition, researchers who might not ordinarily communicate with one another can quickly set up a virtual meeting ground, and ultimately disband if things do not pan out, all with infinitely greater ease and flexibility than is provided by current publication media." Maybe telepathy isn't so far away...

It's about time for the first global renaissance. The internet and open source movement resemble the characteristic massive intellectual effort and rejuvenation of the arts that occurred in Italy around 400 years ago. People are getting smarter than ever, becoming experts in multiple areas. Intellectuals are hard to miss with so many people online. Countless coders and programmers have developed the open source movement, in hopes of most adequately refining man's greatest tool. The world's large network of computers has music and film are everywhere, as artists broaden their scope just by browsing online, and fans discover an exponentially larger selection than they are used to. And everything is done instantly! Just the idea of this type of sharing seems good a priori. If the net stays neutral, and all people are granted access, the scale of advancement mankind will achieve in the next 50 years alone will be unprecedented.

Beyond the Internet

The Internet is evolving, there's no doubt about that. We have Internet 2.0(and now 3.0), Wikis, picture perfect global maps, and numerous developments everyday. Despite all the progress, the future of the internet as we know it is up in the air, as companies battle over content control and argue over which rights should be granted and kept from users. The danger that free and equal use of the internet might be lost is imminent.

I find it ironic that by the time this perverted internet does manifest, it may already be obsolete. The entire Internet could soon be replaced by what is known simply as "The Grid".

The developers of the Internet have already begun networking supercomputers for the further posterity of virtual collaboration. The new network has been said to achieve "speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection(times online)." IBM's Brian Carpenter said of The Grid's future potential, "The Grid will open up ... storage and transaction power in the same way that the Web opened up content."

By installing a completely new infrastructure, they can avoid many problems the Internet has faced already. Still, this total switch will be difficult because of it's large scale. Group's of the world's elite scientists have been meeting to discuss issues of compatibility, security, accounting, and other important issues to consider before initiating the project to full tilt.

Douglas Heingartner explains potential uses:

"Other potential Grid components include creating a virtual observatory, and doctors performing simulations of blood flows. While some of these applications have existed for years, the Grid will make them routine rather than exceptional."

The future of the internet and the grid do share a common characteristic: uncertainty.

Paper Cut

Many technologies are expunged due to their inferiority to competitors, while others are merely upgraded to keep up with the demands of the times. Despite the multitude of technological developments we have achieved, we have yet to successfully make paper a thing of the past, or even upgrade it.

To some, the disappearance of paper is long overdue. The computer has already eclipsed the printing press in magnitude, though it has not deemed it obsolete. A paperless workplace has been a commonly shared vision by many green-geeks of late, though a paperless world is easily perceivable to the common person. In his book, 1984, George Orwell predicted it's disappearance:

"The pen was an archaic instrument, seldom used even for signatures...Apart from very short notices, it was usual to dictate everything into the speak-write...Actually, few people ever wrote letters." (Orwell - 1984)

Let us consider what can go:

Paper records are being replaced by databases and electronic data storage types. Traditional snail mail has already been eclipsed by email. Physical newspapers have lost popularity, as anyone can simultaneously view multiple news sites for free. Paper books are still popular, though products like amazon's kindle look to take them out. Paper currency seems unnecessary with credit cards, check cards, and ATMs. Who needs map when you've got navigation?Airline tickets are totally electronic now. Even toilet paper can go with TOTO's new toilet seat.

So what is paper still good for? Well, it seems it started out as a medium for storing information, as paper records. Then became a transfer medium, used to share information and ideas with other people.
As a storage medium, people should try to free themselves of the paper reliance, as “paper is expensive to create and store - and not very environmentally friendly.” (silicon.com)
Though it seems digital data warehouses are better in almost every conceivable aspect of the storage medium, there are some characteristics as a transfer medium that are not yet replaceable with other technologies. The ability to hand someone a business card, or to quickly make a sketch may be hard to replace. It’s part of human nature to “hold something in our hands” says Bonnie Alba

There are a few proposed upgrades to lessen the reliability on paper, including the digital pen, digital watermarks, and E-paper.


Regardless, there will always be some resistance to the eradication of paper. Aside from the notable job losses to people anywhere on the supply chain for any type of paper-related production, there are some forces that will ensure paper usage to a certain extent. The government requires paper records to prove eligibility for tax deductions should there be an audit, paper records are required to prove many things in court, and paper records are required for proof of insurance. Still, I can envision ways to surpass these standards, as well as the true possibility of a paperless world. The arguments of the luddites, purists, and paper nostalgics are constantly dwindling due to the increasing promise of new technologies and innovation.

15 Crucial Sci-Fi Films

Brave New World(1932)
Aldous Huxley was the godfather of science fiction. Very early on, he recognized the dangers of emerging technology, and predicted a world that few of his contemporaries thought possible. Though it was only made into a TV movie, to me the book was the first instance of these new concepts in literature, media, and the world.

Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb(1964)
The first Stanley Kubrick film and only black & white movie on this list is about a pre-emptive nuclear dilemma involving the United States and the Soviet Union. The film is extremely ironic and satirical, showing how our own machines, especially the weapons, can get out of control and lead to destruction.


2001: A Space Odyssey(1968)
Another Kubrick film with a man vs. machine theme, only this time it's in the future. The film focuses on human evolution, artificial intelligence and even extraterrestrial life. It is especially known for its realistic accuracy(e.g. no noise in space). The ultimate battle is between the crew of the ship and the supposedly error-free computer, HAL 9000. This episode shows the danger of Artifical Intelligence cognizing and resisting a shutdown.


Beneath the Planet of the Apes(1970)
Another future tale about evolution and nuclear disaster, this film is about a battle over an infertile earth between mutant humans and apes that can speak. The mutants have telepathic powers and worship an unexploded nuclear bomb. They eventually detonate upon realizing they cannot win a battle against the apes, causing the total destruction of earth.


THX 1138(1971)
George Lucas' first film, THX 1138 is very Orwelian in theme, in showing the the total control a government can attain through technological and scientific advances. The danger of humans becoming more robotic, mechanical, and generic in nature is emphasized.


1984(novel in 1949, movie in 1984)
The film adaptation of the very famous Orwell novel, is not the same as the novel, but very close. Still, “Big Brother is watching YOU” was coined in the original novel, as Orwell imagined a possible post WWII future. The “Big Brother” concept has grown to be a quite relevant discussion on personal privacy rights balanced with security and surveillance, despite whether it is one's own government, large companies, or other people.

Terminator(trilogy 1984, 1991, 2003)
An epic action flick showing the danger of a cyborg company taking over the world and destroying humanity. It also touches on time travel and the possible effects.

Hackers(1995)
Definately the most hokey of the bunch, Hackers is a modern film about a group of misfit-hacker teens who end up having to use their destructive and disruptive hacking abilities to battle a large corporation with their own 1337 hacker of their own.

12 Monkeys(1995)
Terry Gilliam directed this futuristic movie about a prisoner who is sent back in time to try to find a pure form of a virus that wiped out most of mankind on earth, only everyone in the past thinks he's crazy. The movie deals with the issue of creating a virus that could kill the world, as well as the dangers and paradoxes of time travel. Gilliam also directed Brazil(1985) which was his own more futuristic rendition of 1984.


Gattaca(1997)
Gattaca takes place in near future, where a naturally conceived(as opposed to genetically modified) man attempts to surpass the limitations put on him by society. Major themes include the dangers of genetic engineering as well as the random, inexplicable nature of the universe.


Matrix(1999)
If you haven't seen this movie, then you've probably been asleep for the past 10 years. Basically it is an epic movie about humans fighting to destroy their own creation, the Robot, which has turned against its creators and enslaved mankind. It's similar to 2001: A Space Odyssey in that it shows the danger of creating a cognitive machine that resists termination. An interesting idea, when the computer entity, Mr. Smith, notes that humans are more like a virus than any other creature(shown in the following trailer).


Minority Report(2002)
“Set in Washington, D.C. in the year 2054, where a special police department called "pre-crime" apprehends criminals based on foreknowledge, provided by three psychics termed 'pre-cogs'.” -Wikipedia The movie deals with the moral issues of altering people for unnatural purposes as well as the blind total reliance on new technologies, and the unknown unknowns.


Equilibrium(2002)
Very much like Brave New World and THX 1138, this film is about a society controlled by a totalitarian government who forces its population to take pills to eradicate emotions. The main character is a special soldier who is supposed to apprehend those who don't take the pills. He eventually stops taking them and begins to struggle over right and wrong.

I, Robot(book 1950, movie 2004)
Though the original book by Isaac Asimov was a collection of short stories about depicting a future with robots, the film focuses on a story where a robot is charged for the murder of his master. Almost all of Asimov's books dealt with new technology and its interworking with humanity in the not-so-distant future. My personal favorite, Foundation, is coming to theaters in 2008. Foundation is the first book of a series about a man who develops a method to predict the future and sees the destruction of civilization. He then establishes a distant colony to ensure the survival of the human race.

The Real Superhumans And The Quest For The Future Fantastic(2008)
The only movie on this list that isn't science fiction, it is a documentary dealing with modern people with superhuman abilities. The film also focuses on human evolution, genetics, and aging. A geneticist in this film successfully creates a chimera between two species more genetically disparate than humans and monkeys. He sees genetic engineering of humans inevitable, while warns of the possible biological(as opposed to social)stratification. Still, the super-humans are by far the most fascinating, and definitely worth a look.

Yarggggg! New World Pirates Battle Hollywood

The fact that in 2007, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End was among the top 5 most pirated movies is pure coincidence to most people. In fact, it is a sign of the time, reflecting not only the novel popularity of pirates, but also the real-life pirates whose treasure chest is a hard drive full of music, TV shows, and movies.

Media piracy has become an increasingly large problem for consumers and businesses alike. On one side sits powerful companies lobbying for copyright protection. On the other side sits the file-sharer whose life revolves around the internet. Stuck in between the crossfire is the common consumer, who uses a computer for simple tasks and still goes to the movies. While both sides continue to point fingers, the middle-man is forced to ask why this problem persists and whether an armistice is foreseeable.

Everyone knows that stealing is wrong, but there is something about downloading media that feels different. Perhaps it is the fact that downloading is often conveniently called 'sharing'. Maybe it's the fact that there is no tangible product to be clandestinely concealed and snatched – or it's simply too easy to do. Some 'pirates' argue that the unchecked conglomerate greed and exorbitant media prices justify their actions. Regardless, there seems to be no signs of slowing – a trend that the media companies cannot afford to ignore. But how can they fight this ever-growing armada of modern pirates?

Typical of the large media companies, they Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) have overlooked and bypassed the user, specifically college students, in trying to solve their problems. The MPAA has been lobbying congress with a bill that would “force colleges to make plans for offering up legal music services to students and implement copyright filters, (even) after the MPAA's own data shows that schools have little to do with the overall problem.” [This type of filtering is similar to the Comcast practices mentioned in my previous post.] Of course, colleges are all for educating students on
copyright issues and the penalties for violation, though they are quite reluctant to use such filtering services.

In 2005, the MPAA conducted a study that found colleges to be the source of over 40% of all movie studio losses due to piracy. This was the original justification for urging congress to make colleges offer legal media services along with implementing filtering procedures. Unfortunately for the studios, the study was found to be quite erroneous, with the actual number around 15%. The MPAA's response was to change their reasoning, and emphasize the importance of filters for saving bandwidth and consequently, money.

Of course, the universities have been skeptical of this change and have remained stalwart in their objection to be forced into filtering the traffic on their own networks. But is there a solution somewhere between forced network filters and rampant files-haring?

Perhaps the movie studios to listen to their enemies, and learn:“Peter Sunde and Fredrik Neij from The Pirate Bay(one of the world's largest torrent & filesharing sites) recently did a video interview which resulted in some great quotes. One such quote comes from Fredrik, he suggests that the movie and music industry should set up their own torrent site, and monetize it through advertisements. 'We would be out of business.''he added.” With the record box office booty in 2007, perhaps Hollywood should take a serious look in the mirror and try to reconnect with their inner pirate.